“If it be accepted that”: Mendel 1866, p. 39 (cited in de Beer 1964).

Although the Vatican itself: For a discussion of the early Vatican responses to evolution, see Harrison 2001.

the illusion of confidence: The effect was demonstrated by Kruger and Dunning 1999. A popular description can be found in Chabris and Simons 2010.

Chapter 4: How Old Is the Earth?

the Hindu sages of antiquity: The ancient Hindus believed that a single cycle of destruction and renewal lasted 4.32 million years (eg, Holmes 1947, p. 99–108).